Over the past 25-35 years, the executive branch of the government has changed the way economic data has been compiled and reported to make it more beneficial towards whichever President was in office. And it is in the data reports such as GDP, unemployment, and inflation which have led Wall Street, the Federal Reserve, and of course Congress to implement faulty policies based on this manipulated data.
But this may soon be changing as the Trump administration over the weekend dropped hints that they may be re-adjusting some of the economic data reports, beginning with the ones that are ties to the trade deficit, and the trade balance.
Over the weekend we noted that the Trump administration was considering changing the U.S. trade deficit calculation to exclude re-exports from the US trade balance, a shift that would make America’s trade gap appear even greater than it has been in recent years, potentially making future trade skirmishes and wars with America’s export-heavy trade partners far more likely (see “White House May Change Calculation Of US Trade Deficit, Boosting Trade War Odds“). – Zerohedge
Interestingly, Donald Trump’s rise to the Presidency was due in part to the American people recognizing that the ‘economic recovery’ nonsense touted by both the Fed and Barack Obama was a complete fallacy. And it is quite hard to mask the fact that when 95 million people are either out of work, or in non-full time jobs, that the unemployment rate can’t even remotely be below 10%, much less the ‘official’ 4.8% specified by the BLS.
What will really be interesting is how both Wall Street and the Fed will react if President Trump follows through with changing the reporting of economic data back to the models used around 1980, which gave a much more accurate account of the jobless rate, real inflation, and of course, real gdp growth. Because if those numbers were suddenly reported correctly, you would most likely see the Wall Street algo’s drop the markets a good 20%, and the Fed would be left naked since interest rates should right now be above 10%, rather than the spurious .75 the central bank thinks is adequate.
Kenneth Schortgen Jr is a writer for The Daily Economist, Secretsofthefed.com, Roguemoney.net, and Viral Liberty, and hosts the popular youtube podcast on Mondays, Wednesdays and Fridays. Ken can also be heard Wednesday afternoons giving an weekly economic report on the Angel Clark radio show.